The return of Iranian nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri to Iran is highly unlikely to further the Iranian nuclear program. It is likely that Iran is close to producing a nuclear weapon. Economic sanctions and international pressure are likely to be the only effective measures to slow Iran’s progress, or affect their production and proliferation of nuclear weapons, if or when they are developed.

Discussion:

Iranian nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri’s cooperation with the United States was important as a measure of Iran’s progress in their nuclear weapons’ program. It is highly unlikely that Amiri’s work was important to the development of a weapon.¹ The statement of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that Iran is close to having the potential to create nuclear weapon is likely to be a reliable assessment of the status of the Iranian nuclear weapons development. ² Military intervention is highly unlikely, other than an air strike at Iranian nuclear facilities and could be counterproductive.³

^{Analytic Confidence:}

Analytic confidence overall is medium. The analyst has limited experience and familiarity with the region. News and human are reliable but much of the information is speculative. The information of Russian President Medvedev is reliable because of a high degree of proximity and appropriateness. The information is plausible. 

Comment:

The return of Shahram Amiri to Iran is a short-term embarrassment to the United States with little strategic consequence. It is most probable that the United States and its allies will continue to use diplomatic means to contain or curtail Iran’s efforts to develop a nuclear weapon with an air strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities as a last resort measure.  

For questions or comments, contact the author   E-mail: emagno@comcast.netTel. #. 239.851.5141 

Endnotes 

¹ http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/07/15/iran.researcher.claims/index.html (Reliability: Reliable)

²  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/middle_east/10600100.stm (Reliability: Reliable)

 (Reliability: Highly Reliable)

³http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8634204.stm (Reliability: Reliable)